01 April 2010
In advance of its release of the “Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2014”, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) reported its forecast for the global photovoltaic (PV) market.
EPIA president, Ingmar Wilhelm stated that “In addition to the ramp-up of many markets in Europe, the development and opening of new markets in Asia, the Americas and Africa is paving the way to a strong and sustainable momentum of PV powered supply solutions all around the world.”
The report notes a global increase of about 6.4 GW installed PV, reaching a combined total of over 20 GW worldwide. Despite the difficult economic climate, the global cumulative installed PV capacity is expected to grow by at least 40%.
Looking at markets throughout the world, Germany still dominates with Italy second, and Japan and the U.S. following in third place. EPIA maintains that Germany will likely continue as the largest market in 2010, while new markets in particular from Southern Europe, Asia and the U.S. will grow significantly.
Germany currently has a cumulative installed capacity of almost 9 GW, including around 3 GW installed in 2009. Recently announced cuts in the feed-in tariffs will affect development of the German PV industry in the long term, giving rise to other markets.
Italy is one of the most promising of the rising markets, with an additional 700 MW installed in 2009. Besides high sun irradiation, the new Conto Energia (the government incentive for PV production in Italy), expected to be announced this spring should continue the strong momentum of the Italian market.
The Czech Republic shows steady growth in 2009 with 411 MW installed spurred in part by generous support schemes. When those schemes subside, the market is likely to shrink dramatically in 2011. “This underlines the imperative need for support mechanisms to be designed in a way to ensure a long term, predictable and sustainable development of the market and avoid instability and discontinuity in market evolution” explained Adel El Gammal, Secretary General of EPIA.
Belgium made its way onto the top-ten list with 292 MW installed in 2009. Like the Czech Republic, a change in the support structure will create a slowdown in 2010.
France saw 185 MW installed in 2009, with an additional 100 MW installed but yet grid-connected. France must solve grid connection issues to further stimulate the market.
After the market in Spain flourished and the government imposed a market cap in 2008 (combined with the financial crisis), only about 60 MW was installed in 2009.
Japan, U.S. and other non-European markets
Japan is number 3, with 484 MW currently installed. Due to strong governmental support, the number of installations is likely to continue to grow. The U.S. took off in 2009, also due to governmental support, and will be a leading market in the future. China and India are also expected achieve significant growth in the next few years. Many other areas of the world will also see growth in the coming years and some of these will include Greece, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Mexico, Morocco, South Africa.
