In a few years, solar energy plants will deliver the most inexpensive power available in many parts of the world. By 2025, the cost of producing power in central and southern Europe will have declined to between 4 and 6 cents per kilowatt hour, and by 2050 to as low as 2 to 4 cents, according to a study by the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems commissioned by Agora Energiewende.
Agora Energiewende is an independent German think tank dedicated to research on the future of the electrical power system. The study uses only conservative assumptions about technological developments expected for solar energy. Technological breakthroughs could make electricity even cheaper, but these potential developments were not taken into consideration.
Solar power is already cost-effective: In the sunny, desert country of Dubai, a long-term power purchase contract was signed recently for 5 cents per kilowatt hour, while in Germany large solar plants deliver power for less than 9 cents. By comparison, electricity from new coal and gas-fired plants costs between 5 and 10 cents per kilowatt hour and from nuclear plants as much as 11 cents.
The study also reveals that electricity generation costs for solar power are highly dependent on financial and regulatory frameworks, due to the high capital intensity of photovoltaic installations. Poor regulation and high risk-premiums reflected in interest rates can raise the cost of solar plants by up to 50%. This effect is so great, that it can even outweigh the advantage offered by greater amounts of sunshine.